Nova Scotia Wine Grapes: Will a Changing Climate Mean a Change in Spring Frost Risk?
Citation
Wright, A.H. and Franklin, J. (2022) Nova Scotia Wine Grapes: Will a Changing Climate Mean a Change in Spring Frost Risk? Report, 3 pages.
Plain language summary
Local historical weather data (1913 - 2021) is analyzed for trends in the first and last frost dates as well as the amount of heat accumulated during the growing season. While heat increased by 27% in terms of growing degree days (a measure of heat accumulation), the first fall frost has trended 22 days later while the last spring frost has trended 18 days earlier over the last 108 years. Phenological data was used to develop a model to predict bud break based on both chilling in the fall plus heat. When this model was applied to the historical data it too showed the average bud break date has advanced by approximately 18 days meaning there has not been a significant chance in frost risk. While there is some comfort in this, the uncertainty that comes with the dramatic changes in the climate in the region are unsettling.
Abstract
Local historical weather data (1913 - 2021) is analyzed for trends in the first and last frost dates as well as the amount of heat accumulated during the growing season. While heat increased by 27% in terms of growing degree days (a measure of heat accumulation), the first fall frost has trended 22 days later while the last spring frost has trended 18 days earlier over the last 108 years. Phenological data was used to develop a model to predict bud break based on both chilling in the fall plus heat. When this model was applied to the historical data it too showed the average bud break date has advanced by approximately 18 days meaning there has not been a significant chance in frost risk. While there is some comfort in this, the uncertainty that comes with the dramatic changes in the climate in the region are unsettling.