Net return risk for malting barley production in Western Canada as influenced by production strategies

The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of agronomic practices on net return (NR) risk for malting barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production. This study used data from two field experiments conducted from 2005 to 2008 at eight rainfed locations in western Canada. The first part of this study included 30 production strategies of barley type, seeding rate, and N rate for four regions. The second part of this study included 10 production strategies of seeding date and seeding rate for four regions. A stochastic simulation model was specified to compute the NR. Yield, protein, plumpness, and price were random in the model, drawn from multivariate distributions based on field data and historical price data. The malting cultivar CDC Copeland had higher NR than AC Metcalfe or feed barley. Seeding early at a rate of 200 to 300 seeds m-2 had higher NR than late seeding or higher seeding rates. A fertilizer rate of 60 to 90 kg N ha-1 had higher NR. A producer with high risk aversion preferred strategies that were less risky including: less N fertilizer, growing feed barley in regions that have high protein and smaller price premiums for malting, and seeding later. Copyright © 2012 by the American Society of Agronomy.