Inclusion of physiological responses in insect pest risk analysis: Evaluating species potential to achieve pest status.

Agricultural ecosystems are highly variable with respect to abiotic characteristics such as wind and rain that affect insect pest establishment and spread. How insects respond to these abiotic factors has been recognized as fundamental to insect dispersal. Here we focus on the effects of various abiotic factors with potential to affect the probability of insects achieving pest status and propose ways to improve insect pest risk analyses using empirical as well as theoretical approaches. We present a process flowchart that provides a preliminary pest risk assessment which is useful at both local and regional scales. This approach allows a quick assignment of initial risk levels taking into account what is currently known about an insect species, such as temperatures necessary for survival, effect of temperature, humidity and rainfall on insect development and the impact of local and regional landscape characteristics and soil properties on species abundance and dispersal. Using the process flowchart we conduct preliminary risk assessments for the carrot weevil, Listronotus oregonensis LeConte (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), and the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys Stal (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae), in Nova Scotia to demonstrate the utility of the framework.