Climate change, agricultural inputs, cropping diversity, and environmental covariates in multivariate analysis of future wheat, barley, and canola yields in Canadian Prairies: A case study

Canada’s grain and oilseed production in the Canadian Prairies will be influenced by climate change in the coming decades. The impact of agricultural inputs and crop diversity typically practiced in the region has not been assessed relative to changes in future precipitation and temperature. Such an assessment is important in order to identify key yield defining factors as climate change continues to affect agriculture in Canadian Prairies. This study assessed wheat, canola, and barley yield simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model under historical weather and future climate scenarios in the context of agricultural inputs and cropping diversity at Scott, Saskatchewan, Canada. Agricultural inputs were organic, minimum, and conventional tillage. Cropping diversities were wheat-fallow, diversified annual grains, and diversified annual perennials. We found that precipitation in May, June, and July and temperature in April, May, June, August and September were the most important yield defining factors on the future yield. Future growing season maximum and minimum temperatures increased by 1.06 and 2.03°C, respectively, and 11% in future precipitation, compared to historical weather. We also found that tillage affected wheat yield, but not barley or canola. Wheat yield was highest in minimum, and lowest in organic system. This study showed the relative importance of precipitation and temperature as important factors in analyses of climate change impacts on future yield in the context of typical farming practices in the Canadian Prairies.